Mexico is moving in a direction contrary to the sustainable industrial development and environmental protection that is taking place on a global scale, by prioritizing the generation of electric energy through fossil fuels, which puts future investments by transnational companies in the country at risk, experts warn.
“The new electricity law encourages the consumption of fuel oil for energy production, so the country is going against its commitments to continue the energy transition process and be consistent with a long-term industrial policy that is moving towards replacing the consumption of fossil fuels with green energy,” says Raymundo Tenorio, professor emeritus at Tec de Monterrey.
Unfortunately, industrial policy in Mexico currently does not have the incentives to advance in this energy transition process. “We are stuck,” he points out.
“Generally speaking, the government has opted for a strategy of first developing what it considers to be strategic sectors, that is, the part of electric energy linked to the oil sector, since it considers them to be key elements where the State must have a solid participation, and so it has opted to strengthen those areas before continuing with the green energy strategy,” explains José Luis de la Cruz, director of the Institute for Industrial Development and Economic Growth, AC (Idic).
In Tenorio's opinion, the above affects in principle the relationship with the main commercial partners of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC), because it contemplates that the presence of companies in the three countries must follow a coordinated energy policy.
This means that the production of energy consumed in industry to export intermediate and final goods in the three countries should move towards an increasing share of renewable sources. “In this regard, the United States and Canada are more committed to doing so, but Mexico is not,” Tenorio points out.
He believes that this situation puts future investments in the country at risk since current decisions have reorganized the electricity market, giving priority to energy produced by CFE and leaving renewable energy supplies to last.
Foreign direct investment in Mexico for electricity generation has plummeted in recent years, from $4 billion in 799 to just $2018 million in 584.
Risk analysis
In addition to being in a consultation situation under the USMCA, the measures of the current administration seriously undermine the country's commitments on climate change, profiling Mexico as a regional leader in the increase of the carbon footprint and global warming, warns Juan Carlos Machorro, partner in charge of the transactional practice and expert in energy matters at the law firm Santamarina y Steta.
“In its report Roadmap for Climate Action in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021-2025, the World Bank indicates that Mexico and Brazil account for more than half of the regional greenhouse gas emissions generated by the energy sector, agreeing that transmission and distribution infrastructure must be improved, and electricity generation, storage and smart grid solutions must be diversified,” it notes.
The World Bank study warns that reliance on carbon-intensive systems must be avoided and that countries that continue down the path of short-term expansion of investments in fossil fuel technologies face the increasing risk that future climate change mitigation actions will create stranded assets.
Machorro mentions the great development opportunities that Mexico has if it takes advantage of its clean energy potential and the investments and profits that could be generated.
The National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change recently issued a study on the adoption of a package of mitigation actions to reduce polluting emissions that would allow Mexico, in addition to complying with its commitments under the Paris agreement, to obtain a gain of 157.2 billion dollars, Machorro adds. The actions involve the sectors of electric power generation, oil and gas, transportation, residential, industrial, agriculture and livestock, waste and land use, land use change and forestry. The study adds that the withdrawal of the two technologies that emit the most greenhouse gases is required: conventional steam-fired thermoelectric plants and coal-fired power plants.
Source: El Universal